Predicting emergency department visits among children with asthma in two academic medical systems.

Objective: To develop and validate a predictive algorithm that identifies pediatric patients at risk of asthma-related emergencies, and to test whether algorithm performance can be improved in an external site via local retraining.Methods: In a retrospective cohort at the first site, data from 26 008 patients with asthma aged 2-18 years (2012-2017) were used to develop a lasso-regularized logistic regression model predicting emergency department visits for asthma within one year of a primary care encounter, known as the Asthma Emergency Risk (AER) score. Internal validation was conducted on 8634 patient encounters from 2018. External validation of the AER score was conducted using 1313 pediatric patient encounters from a second site during 2018. The AER score components were then reweighted using logistic regression using data from the second site to improve local model performance. Prediction intervals (PI) were constructed via 10 000 bootstrapped samples.Results: At the first site, the AER score had a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.768 (95% PI: 0.745-0.790) during model training and an AUROC of 0.769 in the 2018 internal validation dataset (p = 0.959). When applied without modification to the second site, the AER score had an AUROC of 0.684 (95% PI: 0.624-0.742). After local refitting, the cross-validated AUROC improved to 0.737 (95% PI: 0.676-0.794; p = 0.037 as compared to initial AUROC).Conclusions: The AER score demonstrated strong internal validity, but external validity was dependent on reweighting model components to reflect local data characteristics at the external site.

Preventive Medicine Physicians' Role in Health Care Organizations' Pursuit of the Triple Aim.

CONTEXT: The Institute for Healthcare Improvement's Triple Aim is rooted in improving population health and therefore requires a focus on prevention as well as management of disease. Preventive medicine (PM) physicians are uniquely trained in clinical medicine as well as health care delivery and systems-based practice, thus potentially positioning them to lead population health and contribute to the Triple Aim. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to (1) describe PM physicians' contributions related to the Triple Aim and (2) describe PM physician satisfaction with these activities. DESIGN: A survey was administered to physicians graduating from a single Preventive Medicine Residency program between 1975 and 2015. Physicians were asked about work in 3 specific emerging areas that relate to the Triple Aim's focus on population health improvement: population health; health system transformation; and integration between primary care and public health. PM physicians were also asked about their job, career, and specialty satisfaction. RESULTS: Most respondents (74%) practiced population health, with the majority (63%) defining this as improving the health of the population at large versus for a defined clinical population (37%). Approximately half (59%) of PM physicians are involved in health system transformation leadership. Most respondents practice both public health and primary care, but only 32% report having had positions that involve integration of these activities. PM physicians reported high specialty satisfaction levels, particularly among those involved in population health and health care transformation. CONCLUSION: PM physicians already make substantial contributions to population health and lead work related to the Triple Aim. High satisfaction among PM physicians suggests that they can contribute to a stable and sustainable population health workforce.

Primary care pediatricians' use of specialty referrals in treating children with chronic abdominal pain.

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric chronic abdominal pain (CAP) is typically managed in primary care settings, although specialty referrals may help patients access the full range of biopsychosocial treatment options. We investigated patterns of specialty referral (gastroenterology or mental health) among children with CAP seen in an academic pediatric primary care clinic. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients age 4-17 years visiting our primary care clinic in 2016-2017 for abdominal pain, identified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. We excluded patients whose symptoms did not persist for 3 months or who were referred to a specialist before their symptoms had persisted for 3 months. Referral outcomes were assessed through December 2018. RESULTS: Of 320 patients with qualifying ICD codes, 253 were excluded because their symptoms did not persist for 3 months; 31 had already been referred to a specialist within 3 months of pain onset; and one chart could not be accessed. Of the remaining 34 patients (22/12 girls/boys, median age 10 years) 10 (29%) were referred to a gastroenterologist and none were referred to mental health specialists. No clinical or demographic factors reached statistically significant associations with gastroenterology referral, although pain duration was shorter among patients who were referred. CONCLUSIONS: Children with CAP managed in our primary care clinic were seldom referred to specialists after their pain persisted over 3 months. Increasing focus on cognitive-behavioral therapies for chronic pain, and the low specialty referral rate, indicates that primary care practices should be prepared to offer these treatment modalities to children with CAP.

Alignment of Preventive Medicine Physicians' Residency Training With Professional Needs.

Preventive medicine (PM) physicians promote population-based approaches to health care with training that emphasizes public health, epidemiology, and policy. PM physicians use these skills in varied, often nonclinical, practice settings. PM career diversity challenges educators when designing residency curricula. Input from PM physicians about workforce environments is needed to ensure that residency requirements match skills needed post-residency. Graduates of one PM residency were sent a cross-sectional survey in 2016. Questions included professional experience, importance of 18 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education sub-competencies and 13 leadership/management skills to current position, and residency training adequacy in those sub-competencies/skills. Responses were rated on 3-point Likert scales. Analyses were completed in 2017. Pearson's chi-square tests examined relationships between position type (academic/government) and perception of competencies' importance and training adequacy. Eighty PM physicians responded (46%): 44% worked in academia and 25% in federal/state/local government. Half (53%) were PM board certified. A total of 88% completed clinical residency prior to PM. Thirteen of 18 competencies were important to work, and respondents felt well trained in 16 of 18 competencies. Respondents did not feel well trained in emergency preparedness and surveillance systems during residency and their opinions about the importance of these sub-competencies varied based on where they worked. Respondents rated all 13 leadership/management skills as important, but reported inadequate residency training. In conclusion, respondents rated most Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education sub-competencies as important to current work and felt well trained, indicating good alignment between residency training and professional needs. Respondents also reported leadership/management training deficiencies. PM residencies might consider incorporating formal leadership training into curricula.